You clearly should use a move other than Sleep Talk on the turn you'll be waking up, the fifth turn. If you select the superior move outright, you have a 1/2 chance to select the most useful move (compared with Sleep Talk's 1/3 chance to select any useful move at all), making selecting the superior move a clear winner. Using Sleep Talk therefore has a 2/3 chance to do nothing, a 1/6 chance to select the superior move, and a 1/6 chance to select the inferior move. The fourth turn, there is a 1/2 chance to wake up. For instance, if the two moves are Return and Brick Break against Tyranitar, Brick Break is such a superior choice that it is better to use Brick Break than Sleep Talk. If your superior move is more than twice as good as your inferior move, use the superior move. If your superior move is less than twice as good as your inferior move, use Sleep Talk. Here, you will use your superior move an extra 1/9 of the time, but you will also fail to do anything an extra 1/9 of the time. Compare this with selecting the superior move, which has a 1/3 chance to use your best move and a 2/3 chance to do nothing. You have a 2/9 chance to select your best move and a 2/9 chance to select the inferior move. Using Sleep Talk therefore has a 5/9 (55.6%) chance to do nothing. The third turn, you have a 1/3 chance to wake up. Sleep Talk here is clearly superior, as it replaces a chunk (25% of the total) of "do nothing" with "use inferior move", which is still an improvement. Compare this to selecting the superior move outright, which has a 1/4 chance to use your superior move and a 3/4 chance to do nothing. You have a 1/4 chance to select your superior move and a 1/4 chance to select your inferior move. Selecting Sleep Talk therefore has a 50% chance to fail to do anything useful (wake up or select Rest). The second turn, you have a 1/4 chance to wake up. If you are slower, this is the turn they are putting you to sleep. If you are faster, this is the first after you are put to sleep. The first turn it's obviously best to Sleep Talk as you have a 0% chance to wake up, so you only have a 1/3 chance to do nothing (as opposed to a 100% chance if you select any move but Sleep Talk). Inferior move is the move that is better than no move, but worse than the superior move. Superior move is the move the Pokemon would select if it were awake, essentially. The first case is when a Pokemon is put to sleep with the following move set: Rest, Sleep Talk, superior move, inferior move. This analysis does not consider issues of PP, as that becomes too complex and mostly irrelevant. I will consider the strategy for when to use Sleep Talk in a few cases. This means that you have a 0% chance to wake up on the first turn of sleep, a 1/4 chance to wake up on the second turn of sleep, a 1/3 chance to wake up on the third turn of sleep, a 1/2 chance to wake up on the fourth turn of sleep, and a 100% chance to wake up on the fifth turn. When a Pokemon is hit by a Sleep move, it gets 1-4 "fast asleep" messages and prior to waking up.
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